Apple WWDC rumor roundup
It’s early June which means Apple is set to host its worldwide developer conference in Cupertino, Calif.
Most if not all of the news to be announced over the next four days seems to have already been spilled onto the web in the form of rumours. The noise leading up to any Apple event is typically deafening.
The most widely-dispersed and discussed rumor leading up to Apple’s annual developer love-in involves, not surprisingly, the iPhone. That is to say a 3G version of the iPhone will most likely be announced when Steve Jobs takes the stage later today. It’ll be old news for anyone that has punched Apple into a Google News search field over the past three months.
Apple has signed a number of deals with carriers in countries overseas where 3G networks have been the norm for some time, hence the need for a 3G iPhone.
There is much more debate about features that may or may not be included in next-generation iPhones. The rumours run the gamut - everything from GPS functionality, a QWERTY keyboard, a wider screen, and video chat capabilities are frequently-discussed possibilities.
One other product that will surely be announced later this week is something called the Mac Fusion, according to The Unofficial Apple Weblob (TUAW). The blog posted three photos of the new device, which is apparently an updated Mac Mini. Apple hasn’t released an updated Mac Mini for almost a year, which is almost a lifetime in Steve Jobs years. The new Mac Mini, if TUAW is correct, will be flatter and contains a dual-core processor from Intel like its Macbook and iMac siblings.
It’s also supposed to make the lives of application developers easier. The ad copy, obtained by TUAW, reads like something created by Apple marketing types.
“Building your applications for the Mac has never been easier. Mac Fusion was designed exclusively for new developers wishing to port their existing programs to the Mac without breaking the bank. Mac Fusion allows you to explore the power and stability of Max OS X while keeping the ability to run alternate operating systems such as Windows or Linux, via Boot Camp.”
The iTunes App Store, a clearing house for iPhone application development, will likely go live this week. The software developer kit has been available for download for months which has led presumably to the creation of applications for the popular iPhone. Expect Steve Jobs to show off some of the new apps and the App Store at some point this week.
Commentary will be added once the Apple parade starts early this afternoon (1PM EST).
Twitter hater
Faced with constant service interruptions and an annoying hype cycle, I’ve relegated Twitter to the snail mail category of communications.
That is to say I’ll check it once a day for a very short period of time, assuming of course the network is operational.
The reasons for my frustration with the network are manyfold. The overhyped social network has been hobbled by service problems over the past month if not longer. Furthermore, information is hard to organize and frankly the Twitter hype far exceeds its utility even when the thing is at peak performance.
Nary a day has gone by where I haven’t received a message along the lines of: “Something went wrong! Try again!” Or how about the oft-used overly cute and annoying message: “Bring that beat back! You’ll be able to access Twitter in a few seconds.”
Why is that what seems like every other social network is able to grow with its user base except for Twitter?
Twitter has tried to blame its poor performance on everything and everyone. First, it was the fault of Lee Mighdoll, the former vice-president of engineering, who was likely pushed out in April. Then it was the fault of Ruby on Rails, a reliable open source Web application framework. I personally think Osama Bin Laden has something to do with Twitter’s performance problems.
I also receive far more spam, of the social network variety, if you will on Twitter. It’s not the traditional garden variety e-mail spam. It’s more like the barnacle type. You know what I’m talking about Twitterers. They’re the spambots/dummy accounts that want you to click through to some link farm that’s chock o block with self-hypnosis or stop smoking messages. I receive at least 2 of these notices a week.
The second major reason is the terrible organization of information on Twitter. The more people I follow on the network, the less
There are of course features that make it appealing on a limited basis - the microblogging feature most notably. The negatives far outweigh the positives.
Then there are the Web snobs that for some unknown reason prefer Twitter. The avid Tweeters or Twitterers blindly insist Twitter is a better social network despite its obvious flaws. The slavish devotion to what increasingly seems like a flawed platform only makes me want to decrease my usage further.
Yet I will remain a Twitter user - it’s hard to ignore a platform that’s adding 1.2 million users a month. This is the power of networks. It is relegated to a network I will check no more than once a day status. Long live Facebook. Long live LinkedIn and Plurk. There’s a reason the first two networks mentioned will remain well-trafficked sites for the time being at least.
Performance matters. Down with Twitter. Wait a sec - it’s already down!
Wireless coalition needed post-spectrum auction
With the Canadian wireless spectrum auction entering only its second week, the prospects for a fourth national cell phone service provider have dimmed considerably.
The collection of wireless upstarts trying to outbid and elbow each other out of the way like Breckin Meyer and Cuba Gooding Jr. in the 2001 comedy Rat Race are making it increasingly expensive for all parties to purchase spectrum, which a company needs to offer cell phone service. This means it’ll be much harder in a post-auction environment for any one company to challenge Bell, Rogers and Telus for national wireless supremacy despite the best efforts of Michael Binder and Len St. Aubin of Industry Canada.
The first problem is that the proceeds from the spectrum auction have already surpassed most expectations, meaning it’ll be far more expensive for one company to go it alone on the national wireless front. This weakens the business case to become a standalone fourth national wireless service provider - credit is far more expensive and scarce. Second, customer acquisition costs will be extraordinary for all new wireless companies (as will retention efforts for that matter) once infrastructure build out is done. One need only look at Fido, which was bought by Rogers Wireless three years ago, for proof.
This assumes the a collection of competitors still try to go it alone if and when the spectrum necessary for national wireless service is bought.
The likes of Shaw, MTS Allstream and all other comers east of Manitoba need to team up post-auction if a fourth national player is to thrive (For now, we all know the parties aren’t communicating during the auction of course. Nor are the incumbents). MTS, which still wants to become a national wireless carrier, despite the fact its alliance fell apart before the auction began, seems to be the most likely candidate to lead the charge.
Wireless telecom services is a game of scale - the more expansive the network, the more valuable it is to customers which means greater revenue potential for the provider. Telecom services is a national competition now, making it necessary for the wireless wanna bes to form a coalition of sorts, a la Sprint in the United States.
Terms and conditions between partners will be critical to the success of any post-auction wireless alliance. Why? In a word - control. The phrase ‘it’s as difficult as herding cats’ has become a cliche in ICT circles for a reason. One party needs to head up the coalition.
This seems unlikely given that each of Shaw, Videotron and MTS is used to getting its own way. To forge a ‘go it alone’ strategy will in the end only hamper each provider’s business case. Forget about the mandated roaming and tower sharing - negotiating those deals with Rogers is going to be a logistical nightmare. Ted will not go quietly into the night.
The larger bidders for wireless spectrum, such as Videotron or even Globalive, can likely go it alone as most of the companies have relatively deep and broad packages of services to sell to consumers. But a much stronger alternative will emerge if a ‘coalition of competitors’ is formed. I suspect the largest competitors post-auction will figure this out only after some expensive lessons.
Technorati Tags: Rogers, Bell, Telus, Shaw Communications, Globalive, Videotron
Wireless Week In Review
The North American wireless news cycle was somewhat slower than usual this week as the U.S. of A. celebrated its annual Memorial Day. Google, however, livened up the week by showing off its long-awaited Android operating system to developers at a U.S. trade show. As well, the long-awaited Canadian wireless spectrum auction got off to an inauspicious start though a numbered company backed by financiers M/C Venture Partners and Columbia Capital and Novacap in Quebec re-entered the race spicing up an otherwise dull affair.
1) Canadian spectrum auction begins: Quebecor, Telus and Globalive have grabbed the early lead to buy the largest swaths of spectrum from Industry Canada, in what may be the last opportunity to grab the finite resource. The federal government, which has reserved about 40% of the available spectrum for new entrants, hopes to bring down cell phone prices by subsidizing the cost of entry for companies such as Videotron, Shaw Communications and other well-financed companies.
Impact: Minimal. The winners won’t be decided for another two weeks and much bidding remains. It seems like a safe bet to assume there will soon be strong regional entrants in Quebec and in Western Canada in if not the rest of the country. Perhaps Bell, Telus and Rogers shouldn’t have pushed the price envelope on cell phones as much as they have in past. The winners should be decided by the end of June.
2) Google Android operating system: Images of the open source mobile OS were shown off by the search engine king at a trade show in California. At the demo, Google showed developers a feature whereby users will be able to unlock an Android-powered smartphone by drawing a shape on the screen. A Google-powered phone will also include traditional mobile device features such as an internet browser, map software, compass, multimedia applications, text messaging, calendar functions and email.
Impact: Google’s cell phone interface is a lot slicker than those of most handset manufacturers. However, it’ll be years before the company grabs even a slice of the market as its handset and carrier partners are of the second-tier variety. Its 30-party alliance is chock a block with non-exclusive agreements which may make it harder for the company to keep its loose coalition together over time.
Technorati Tags: Google, Android, Videotron, Shaw, Bell, Telus, Rogers, Globalive, Industry Canada
Random Mesh reflections (one week after the fact)
Mesh, Canada’s Webopalooza, has long since packed up its virtual tent but there are no shortages of memories and items to follow up on.
Personal highlights were the various discussions on Day 2 of the conference, with an emphasis on a day that focused on Web marketing and business. The day kicked off with Canadian entrepreneurs that have struck it big in them thar Web hills.
First up was Lane Merrifield, the Club Penguin founder, who sold his company to Disney for about US$350-million in August of last year. Garrett Camp, the StumbleUpon founder/Calgarian/lucky bastard who sold his company to eBay for US$75-million last year, followed.
Neither had any secrets to reveal but the general guidance (e.g. stay the course, 1000 points of light) and tales of the companies as they rose to prominence, were nonetheless appreciated.
The various sessions in the afternoon of Day 2, such as the Cultivating Communities session where panelists such as Derek Szeto of Redflagdeals.com imparted Web wisdom and best practices to audience members, were particularly useful to those looking for tactical advice. Jen Evans, a Toronto-based entrepreneur and writer who oversaw the discussion, gets my vote for best moderator of the conference. She rightly recognized it’s not all about her!
As an aside, it was entertaining and frankly hard to ignore the obvious multi-tasking and Twittering that went on during the sessions - hard to imagine how many of the attendees paid attention to the panelists. Each to his own, as they say. Given Twitter’s technical problems this week, one has to wonder whether the Mesh conference members overloaded the site!
Separately, I’m not positive but Windows-based machines may have been banned from the MaRS premises where the conference was held for the third consecutive year. Macs running Firefox were the name of the game for most attendees; I don’t think I saw a Dell or HP machine anywhere.
Anyway, conference co-organizer and all-round nice guy Stuart Macdonald asked me what’s changed over the three-year life span of Mesh. Tough question as each year has been great. I suppose the short answer seems to be incremental improvements to the conference lineup. The 15 minutes of fame was perhaps the most entertaining slot for me personally - it was a blast to watch eager entrepreneurs pitch their wares to an audience of roughly 400 people. Many flopped in my estimation but there were a few gems too, namely the Well.ca online drug store founder whose name escapes me at the moment.
Equally entertaining (and useful for that matter) was the CityTV-like pitch booth where eager entrepreneurs could shout their pitches, presumably to venture capitalists.
The free Red Bull and after-Mesh parties were a nice touch and loads of fun, respectively. Looking forward to the fourth iteration of Mesh!
The Canadian wireless spectrum auction - the illusion of progress?
Many a Canadian wireless pundit has predicted the end of the so-called wireless services oligopoly run by Bell, Rogers and Telus.
The turning point is supposed to come tomorrow when Industry Canada auctions off spectrum, which will eventually be turned into wireless service offerings by new entrants as early as next year.
The government department, which will conduct the auction process, reserved 40% of the available spectrum last year so that companies making additional competition a fait accompli.
The additional entrants will help drive down prices to be sure, which means the government will reach its goal at some point in the not-too-distant future. But at what cost to shareholders and citizens?
You see most, if not all, of the new entrants stand little chance of survival over the long term. The cable entrants, such as Videotron and Shaw Communications, will fold wireless into so-called “quadruple play” offerings that consist of wireless TV, internet and landline/VoIP services.
Those companies aren’t going anywhere; it’s easy to see how wireless service can help the providers retain customers in a cost-effective manner even if it is on a regional basis.
But companies, even ones with deeper pockets, such as John Bitove’s DAVE Wireless, have much a weaker business case and thus a shorter life span.
Let’s first consider the offerings these firms are likely to sell. Wireless is indeed a valuable service for Canadians, but the new entrants will soon find themselves outgunned by the Big Three that can sell more plentiful service baskets. We Canadians don’t like to be inconvenienced - dealing with multiple suppliers is just too much hassle, which makes the offerings of the Big Three much more attractive to consumers if they are in any shape or form price competitive.
Secondly, there’s the “penetration rate,” which is industry jargon for the % of Canadians that own a cell phone. At over 60%, it is relatively high when the number of potential new entrants are considered. This isn’t 1980. How many senior citizens and new Canadians with little income have yet to sign up for cell phone service? These are among the types of people that have yet to pick up a cell phone. Not exactly cash cows I dare say.
Is it enough to sustain the businesses of multiple providers? Highly unlikely is the correct answer.
What about the other Canadians that currently use a cell phone? Many of the “pure play” entrants will have to price cut themselves into oblivion to make offerings attractive to current cell phone users over a prolonged period of time. That’s not exactly a winning business case.
This leaves the carcasses of several wireless companies for the likes of Rogers, Bell and Telus to pick from when the inevitable happens and new entrants die a slow and miserable death. (That leaves regional players that perhaps join forces to become a fourth national entrant, assuming the companies ever figure out wireless services is a game of scale. But I digress.)
Fast forward to 2012 or 2013. The wireless services playing field will be littered with the carcasses of the new entrants after financing has all but evaporated and a sustainable business model has yet to be figured out. This will leave Rogers, Bell and Telus to snap up the financially insolvent companies that have managed to accrue sizable customer bases at inflated prices, enriching the owners of the untenable businesses while depriving shareholders of the white knights.
So celebrate the end of what many see as a wireless oligopoly tomorrow while you can Mr. Canadian consumer - it will be for naught over the long term. Eventually, prices will creep up and the number of wireless providers in Canada will again be down to a handful of players. The real winner tomorrow will be the Canadian government which is expected to generate billions in revenue from the sale of the spectrum. That’s competition for ya.
Telus salivating over Bell Canada?
With the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan deal for Bell Canada in jeopardy, Telus executives must be warming up old spreadsheets in anticipation of another takeover bid for the beleaguered telecom services provider.
The credit crunch has financiers pressing the Teachers-led consortium to rework the terms of the $42.75 a share deal for Bell. Compounding the problems for Teachers, its partners and Bell is a Quebec court that surprisingly ruled in favour of upset bondholders yesterday, saying the deal shouldn’t be approved without their consent. Bell could still buy out or settle with the bondholders, which would completely negate my theory of course. Shareholders aren’t as sure - Bell shares are off 13% as of 10AM on Thursday May 22.
That leaves Telus as the most likely suitor for Bell assuming the $52-billion leveraged buyout collapses, an event that now seems likely. Why would Bell agree to a Telus takeover given the fact the parties couldn’t come to an agreement last year?
Simply put, Bell’s strategic options are limited assuming Teachers and its partners back out - it has to play ball with Telus if and when the current arranges collapses.
Bell can’t go back to market as an independent entity; by putting itself up for sale last year the company admitted as much.
A takeover by another private equity firm, in theory, is still an option for Bell though the financing terms for Teachers or another consortium will be more onerous given the current credit climate. That’s assuming Blackstone or some other private equity firm can muster up the strength to mount a takeover of massive proportions.
Then there’s the onerous Canadian ownership restrictions that necessarily limits the pool of possible suitors to take over the beleaguered company. This makes Telus one of the few companies that’s both interested and in a decent position to buy Bell even if the companies are mortal enemies.
Bell executives must sell the company or face a barrage of lawsuits. Step right up Darren Entwistle; whither Jim Leech. George Cope and co. await your call.
Canadian 3G iPhone launch date?
No I don’t know when Rogers will officially introduce the iPhone to salivating Canadian gadget geeks.
For those of you still reading, it’s a fairly safe bet to say Rogers will announce the official launch date on June 9th or sometime shortly thereafter. That’s the date of Apple’s annual worldwide developer conference.
Apparently, the company is set to provide more 3G iPhone release details at that point in time. Apple, as most company followers knows loves to reserve its juiciest tidbits of info for company conferences (or for that matter just about any Tuesday but I digress.)
The launch date is important to those that follow or care about iPhone minutiae because Rogers is expected to the company’s popular handsets that run on so-called 3G networks which carry data at faster speeds.
Anyway, my bet is on the ’shortly thereafter’ part as wee little Canada so often takes a backseat to our much larger industrialized trading partners for the likes of Apple and other companies to attack. I’ll even venture a (revised) guess of November just in time for the holiday season.
Originally, I predicted a launch sometime in Q1 of CY2009. Close counts when it comes to launch prediction dates as well as horseshoes and hand grenades - right?
Technorati Tags: Apple, Rogers, iPhone
An introduction to Carl Icahn
Jerry Yang meet Carl Icahn, the venerable corporate financier. You may have heard of Mr. Icahn; he’s the rarest kind of shareholder; the one who is able to promote change.
I’m not sure if you’ve run into each other but you’ll get to know the name very well over the next several weeks and months. That’s assuming of course you don’t sell the company you created to Microsoft for a 70% premium or some other similarly generous offer for your beleaguered Yahoo, the company you co-founded in 1994 as an Internet navigational guide with David Filo.
In case your investor relations people didn’t tell you, Mr. Icahn has bought 50-million shares of Yahoo Inc., (he now owns 59-million shares) not coincidentally the shares were bought after you badly overplayed your hand at the negotiating table with Microsoft Corp. earlier this month.
This is where it gets bad for you Mr. Yang. You see Mr. Icahn is used to getting his own way and on his own timelines. Just ask Ed Zander, the former chief executive of Motorola, who was pushed out even though Mr. Icahn failed to secure himself a seat on the company’s board of directors.
Your poor handling of Microsoft’s takeover has Mr. Icahn and other shareholders frustrated as you now know.
As a result, Mr. Icahn is ready to act. He’s just not your typical shareholder who’ll rail at injustice then fade quietly into the Silicon Valley smog. Nope - he has real power; he’s the lightning rod for the frustrated Yahoo shareholders that desperately wanted Microsoft to acquire your company. He wants Yahoo to take the “sensible path” - Icahn said in a letter to Yahoo’s board that of a possible combination with Microsoft if it is to compete against Google.
That means he’s going to be in your backyard, as the saying goes, a lot over the near future. That is until you come to senses and beg Microsoft to come back to the negotiating table. We all know an AOL tie-up isn’t a viable option for Yahoo.
Expect to hear from him a lot. Whether that means simply sitting down at the table again with Microsoft, he’s going to have a big say as to how the company operates from here on in. That means an eventual sale of the company, perhaps over the next three months. Get used to it.
Technorati Tags: Carl Icahn, Jerry Yang, Yahoo, Motorola
The Brewing Mobile Application Development War
Lost amid the roar from investors and users after Monday’s big BlackBerry Bold product announcement was the start of a competition that will help determine what company becomes the leader of the smartphone market.
The $150-million BlackBerry fund, announced Monday, was established to encourage and ultimately fund the creation of mobile applications that will run on the smartphone, signals the start of a race between RIM and its competitors to capture the minds and keyboards of mobile app developers worldwide.
It’s a race that will garner less attention but can shift the balance of power in the nascent smartphone market. Why? Mobile services are seen as the next frontier of the information age. Sleek-looking smartphones won’t be enough to satisfy users and ultimately capture share for vendors. Mobile device manufacturers no longer can ship a good-looking smartphone and expect it to sell.
Instead, the smartphone makers want to put a full suite of applications at the fingertips of users. To do so, manufacturers need to have developers, internally and with partners, feverishly creating and refining applications that will make the smartphone an increasingly valuable device.
Even the oh-so-fashion conscious Apple has come to the realization that it’s all about the applications. Apple announced its App Store initiative in March, which will allow mobile application developers to distribute their software via the iTunes program making it a geek candy store of sorts for cell phone enthusiasts.
RIM’s less-discussed competitors, such as Nokia and Motorola to a lesser extent, have been wooing and working with developers for years.
By virtue of its install base and user base in the ICT industry, Apple and Nokia would seem to have the initial edge. But developers don’t necessarily care about history; they care about a viable platform and innovative vendor. Let the battle begin. We are a ways off from that goal considering the current physical limitations of mobile phones, the poor battery life associated with many of these devices and the outrageous price of data plans offered by Canadian carriers and other service providers in other parts of the industrialized world. Let’s solve those problems first; then talk to me about mobile applications.
Technorati Tags: Nokia, Motorola, Research In Motion, BlackBerry, Apple, iPhone, mobile applications
-
KR In Your Reader
-
My LinkedIn Profile
