Predictions of Twitter’s demise premature

The predictions of Twitter’s demise are on the rise.

Journalists and self-professed social media experts over the past week have said the end is nigh for the Web site and social network.

Take for instance, Globe and Mail contributor Ivor Tossell and Edelman’s Steve Rubel who have said the social network is “over, done with” or has “peaked,” in an online news piece and a blog post, respectively.

There is little evidence to back up these claims. The Web site’s growth has been nothing short of phenomenal. Take last year for example. The site started with half a million unique visitors; it ended with 4.4 million unique visitors. To be sure, Twitter’s growth last year year will be difficult to replicate. But it doesn’t look like Twitter’s last rites should be read either.

Worst-case scenario? Twitter’s growth will taper off from high triple digits to some slightly less astonishing number this year. In other words, it’s still very much in the high-growth phase. (I’m being generous).

Twitter’s growth will continue unabated for several reasons. The social network has only now entered the mainstream, thanks to plugs from high-profile Twitter users such as talk show host Ellen De Generes and pro hoopster Shaquille O’Neal.

The indirect endorsements have helped Twitter grow its subscriber base, not detract from it, as Rubel contends. How can celebs, who have throngs of fans that blindly follow them, hurt the site’s traffic figures? Rubel really doesn’t say. That’s because the opposite has happened. The celebrities, such as Britney Spears who have opened accounts in recent months, have boosted the social network’s credibility.

Perhaps early adopters, who Rubel says prefer the more scattered approach of yesteryear’s Twitter, are ready to give up on the service. (Twitter of yesteryear is a reference to the site two years ago.) If that’s the case, the after effects have yet to be felt. For every geek or early adopter that has stopped using the service, 4 or 5 join Twitter it seems.

Everyone wants to be the one to call the end to a trend. Rubel and Tossell are no different.

Twitter, like any other business if can call it that considering the site hasn’t generated a penny of revenue, has its challenges.

It’s also true that social networks have come and gone; Twitter may very well end up as a tombstone in the growing graveyard of failed Web and tech companies.

But it’s end is nowhere in sight.