Top 5 Apple Macworld Pullout Theories

Apple’s announcement this week that it will cease participation at Macworld next year and Steve Jobs’ decision not to speak at the Jan. 2009 event has been well documented to say the least. There have been hundreds of stories published on the topic. Nonetheless, I feel compelled to weigh in on the matter as it is just too rich of a topic to ignore considering the abundance of conspiracy theories that would probably make movie director Oliver Stone blush.

Theories on the amount of days Steve Jobs has to live, rumours of internecine executive struggles, an orderly leadership handoff and general teeth gnashing over the company’s future have all been hot Apple-related topics of discussion this week.

Anyway, here’s a smattering of the more popular theories and my personal take on them.

1. Steve Jobs is on his deathbed again. This is the elephant in the room given his bout with pancreatic cancer in 2004. As a result, it has been easily the most circulated and discussed theory this week. It should be a concern for investors going forward. And yes, Apple has been criticized in past for its poor disclosure or lack there of it and its corporate governance so the speculation is easily understood. But it’s too easy and/or early to say that the company’s guiding light is in any way, shape or form going to his resting place in the near future. One Wall St. analyst says his sources claim Steve Jobs is cancer free. Nonetheless, Apple could do itself a favour by showing interested parties that Steve Jobs is indeed alive and that there’s no reason to believe the company is going to have to wheel him around to maintain investor confidence like a scene out of the movie Weekend At Bernie’s. Probability = 50%.
2. Apple is set to change leaders in the near future. This theory seems to have been sparked by a research note from Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray published this week. He seems to think the fact Phil Schiller, the company’s vice-president of marketing, is going to speak at this year’s Macworld signals some sort of impending leadership change. That’s a lot of reading of tea leaves but Mr. Munster’s opinion should be taken seriously as he is one of the more respected authorities on the topic of Apple. I’m still giving this theory a thumbs down. Jobs is alive and probably well, which means he’ll be the leader for the foreseeable future. Probability = less than 20%.
3. Apple wants to release products on its own schedule. This is one of the most plausible theories or reasons for the Apple pullout. It is next to impossible to release a market-changing product every January as Apple did with the iPhone in 2007 at Macworld. Yet that’s the expectation Apple has set for itself because it keeps upping the ante on itself with products of greater importance each year at Macworld; it has traditionally been the major product launching pad. It has been Apple’s Super Bowl. Apple likely doesn’t want to have to pull a "rabbit out of a hat" (e.g. an iPhone type release) every year at the trade show. How Apple will create the anticipation or buzz for products in future is anyone’s guess. One thing’s for sure. The fact Steve Jobs won’t speak at the show next month means the company definitely won’t announce a product anywhere near the impact of, oh say, the iPhone. Probability = 100%
4. Apple wanted greater control over the show. Apple, like many companies of its ilk, probably doesn’t like it when others set the agenda, directly or indirectly. Macworld is run by IDG, a conference organizer, publisher and owner of research firm IDC (full disclosure: I am an employee of IDC, which is a unit of IDG). By virtue of this fact, Apple probably had less control over the show than it would’ve liked. But I think Apple’s Macworld pullout has more to do with the company’s growing dislike for trade shows as opposed to a control issue. Probability = 40%.
5. Apple is ditching Macworld for the Consumer Electronics Show in Vegas. It’s boring and unlikely but not an entirely implausible theory forwarded by BusinessWeek writer Arik Hasseldahl. CES may very well have thrown, or will throw some sweeteners, at Apple to make it the headliner at the annual gadget fest. As Hasseldahl points out, Bill Gates is no longer the annual keynote speaker so perhaps that leaves a void for Jobs to fill. As for Apple’s actual participation at the most excellent show, which I’ve attended twice? I say not a chance. Remember, Apple likes to "be different." This means the end of almost all participation in trade shows for Apple. Probability = less than 10%.

[tags] Apple, Steve Jobs, Macworld [/tags]