Rogers Wireless releases $20 “all-you-can-eat” data plan: is it an iPhone harbinger?

The blogosphere and tea leaf readers are reading way too much this week into the release of a $20 unlimited data plan from Rogers Wireless.

The plan, called Communicate Value Pack, allows Rogers Wireless customers to surf the Web on an unlimited basis. The plan also includes 2,500 outbound SMS and 1,000 outbound MMS messages, caller ID, recent call history and voicemail.

The plan, according to some pundits, must mean Rogers is going to release the iPhone in Canada any day now.

Not so fast. I have no special knowledge of Rogers and Apple talks to bring the iPhone to Canada. They may be ongoing, maybe not. I imagine Apple is having a hard time convincing Rogers, which owns the GSM network(s) in Canada and is the only party that can host the iPhone, to give up a slice of the accompanying service revenues it collects from customers monthly like its AT&T Wireless, its U.S. counterpart which was struggling prior to the agreement with Apple.

But I digress.

The Communicate Value Pack is really a sign that Rogers is looking for new ways to increase wireless sales – it’s about more than the iPhone.

Data plans have been available for years of course but have been prohibitively expensive for most Canadian consumers. The wireless service providers have grown by adding subscribers who were willing to overpay for voice (and data) plans that are expensive by international standards.

That gravy train is coming to an end.

Over 60% of Canadians now own a cell phone – it’s tougher now for the service providers to find new subscribers unless the companies want to beat each other up in an expensive price war that no one wants to start. Growth is slowing for the carriers which makes it harder for the carriers to meet and ultimately surpass the expectations of Bay St. analysts.

So that means Rogers, the country’s leading carrier when measured by number of subscribers, and competitors need to find new ways to sell more services to each person. In past, the companies have been able to drive greater growth by adding subscribers and charging existing customers higher prices for voice calls. That’s harder to do now as providers like Bell namely, have chopped plan prices in recent months in order to drive subscriber and top-line growth.

So Rogers and other carriers have chopped data plan prices or are offering unlimited mobile Web browsing plans.

The iPhone, when it’s released officially in Canada, will help Rogers sell more data plans – it’s proving to be a hugely popular phone in the U.S. and abroad. But it’s far from the only reason the plan was released. And it’s certainly not a sign the iPhone will be released here over the coming weeks. It’s just part of a larger wireless picture.